funds-newsletter: Given the plunges in many categories of funds, we believe that many investors will be tempted to buy in the near future at what appear to be depressed prices.

While this strategy may appear to make sense, we believe that stocks will be in a bear market during the months ahead. If one has relatively modest 401(k) stock allocations deducted regularly from his/her paycheck, it might not make sense to stop doing so. But as far as making larger portfolio shifts into stocks, thinking that this may be a good time to capitalize on lower prices, we would disagree. We would rather wait until the market has moved significantly past the likely bear market and has shown a what appears to be sustainable recovery. This, in our opinion, will require the kind of uptrend that restores our faith that stocks are headed in the right direction again. This could easily take at least 6 months or more.

True, by waiting for stocks to resume a sustainable uptrend may result in our losing out on as much as 15%-20% of potential upside. But, without it, one should have little assurance that additional losses of an equal amount are not just as likely. Investing back into what could be a just starting bear market appears to us as more of a gambler's bet than that of an investor who is interested in making prudent decisions.